UK EXPERTISE • REMOTE FIRST • GLOBAL DELIVERY
Predictive Systems That Quantify the Cost of Being Wrong
Architecting high-integrity pipelines for trading teams, analytics leads, and operators who cannot afford ‘black box’ failures
Remote-first • International delivery • Reply within 24 hours
Statistical Validation: Scientific Backtesting
Predictive Integrity: Audit Ready Architecture
Operational Resilience: Real-Time Monitoring & Drift Detection
Python/SQL
Bayesian Inference
ML Ops
R/Shiny
Sports Modeling/Predictive Strategy
Engagements (fixed-scope, remote-first)
Clear deliverables. No fluff. Senior-level focus on every line of code.
Model Audit
5–7 days
Know if your model is overconfident, leaking, or drifting — with a clear fix plan.
Calibration + reliability analysis
Leakage + feature sanity checks
Drift monitoring recommendations
Evaluation pack (log-loss / Brier)
Forecasting / Pricing Sprint
10 business days
From raw data to a working predictive system you can run, monitor, and trust.
ETL → modelling → validation
Calibration + decision thresholds
Dashboard/report + handover
Reproducible runs + runbook
Monitoring & Iteration
monthly
Models stay honest in production — performance tracked, drift detected, fixes shipped.
Drift alerts + threshold triggers
Performance reporting + review
Iteration roadmap + improvements
Retraining plan (when needed)
ACCURATE
Calibrated probabilities + proper scoring rules (log-loss, Brier, reliability).
FAST
Automated pipelines + reproducible runs built for decision velocity.
RELIABLE
Monitoring, drift checks, and handover documentation for production use.
Async-friendly. Minimal meetings. Maximum shipping.
Select Case Studies
Real systems, real evaluation, real uncertainty.
Sports Trading Alpha
Fair-odds + calibration pipeline designed to reduce pricing overconfidence.
Backtested across 9,000+ matches • Margin handling • Log-loss tracking
Healthcare Predictive Analytics
Forecasting + benchmarking to flag risk and variability in high-stakes reporting.
Hierarchical modelling • Uncertainty intervals • High-integrity data handling
Bespoke R Shiny Intelligence
Executive dashboards that turn model outputs into decisions — not noise.
Database-backed • Scheduled refresh • Drill-down analysis
Latest from the Blog
Thinking on probability, calibration, and applied quant methods.
These posts reflect real problems solved in production — not theory for theory’s sake.
Read all articles on numerosdon.com →How it works
A structured delivery process designed for remote execution and fast impact.
1
Scope call (30 minutes)
Define objective, data access, constraints, and the success metric. Minimal meetings, maximum clarity.
2
Sprint delivery
Working demo mid-way, weekly update, and a build you can run end-to-end.
3
Handover + next steps
Runbook, monitoring plan, and an improvement roadmap — so the system keeps paying you back.