Donovan Robertson | Quantitative Consultant | NúmerosDon

NúmerosDon — Bayesian Systems for High-Stakes Decisions
NúmerosDon Data Solutions
Donovan Robertson · Bayesian systems for high-stakes decisions

Quantifying the cost of being wrong.

I build the quantitative infrastructure that turns complex data into decisions teams can act on. End-to-end systems that give you the confidence to defend your reasoning in the boardroom.

131K
Observations modelled
156
NHS trusts analysed
4 yr
Pathway recovery window
62-day
Cancer treatment target
Capability showcase — Live production system

The NHS has missed its cancer target every year since 2015. I built a quantitative system that diagnoses why.

Isolating nationwide pressures from local execution. Mapping the truth step by step, so you know exactly which failures are structural and which are operational.

Bayesian Inference R / Stan Healthcare 131K observations 156 trusts

NHS Cancer Pathway Recovery: Bayesian Inference for Operational Triage

A live interactive system that maps why the 62-day standard has been missed — separating systemic capacity issues from trust-level performance, with full posterior uncertainty quantified at every level. Explore it below.

Engagements

Two types of work. Same standard of delivery.

Built for environments where a wrong call is immediately costly — healthcare, financial markets, complex operations.

High-Impact Quant Systems

Where the analysis is the competitive advantage.

For complex, high-stakes decisions where guessing is catastrophic and the wrong answer is expensive.

Forecasting & demand models
Pricing, risk & margin optimisation
Decision engines with calibrated uncertainty
Probabilistic modelling under uncertainty
Interactive executive dashboards (R Shiny / Python) built directly onto the models
The model IS the margin.
Discuss a project →
Data & Engineering

When you just need things built properly, fast.

For teams that need clean, bulletproof execution — without a six-month consulting engagement. Excel cleanup, scraping, automation, dashboards.

Web scraping & data collection
ETL pipelines & automation
Custom dashboards & reporting
Excel rescue & spreadsheet consolidation
Data cleaning & integration
Built right. Delivered fast.
Tell me what you need →
Donovan Robertson
About

Donovan Robertson

Quantitative Data Consultant · MSc Statistics

I overhauled and delivered the analytical engine for a high-pressure trading operation — orchestrating centralised data, statistical models, and executive dashboards under extreme time pressure. Now I deploy that same institutional standard to build the quantitative edge for organisations where decisions are expensive and the data is complex.

Every engagement is owned end-to-end: from raw data to live system.

Read my professional background →

R / Stan / Shiny Python MySQL Power BI Bayesian inference
How I work

Every system ships with these non-negotiables.

The standard, regardless of project size.

01

Decision-Grade

Calibrated probabilities, proper uncertainty quantification, honest about what the model knows and doesn’t know.

02

Production-Hardened

Automated pipelines, drift detection, reproducible builds. Designed for the long term — not a one-off analysis.

03

Full Ownership

End-to-end delivery from raw data to live system. No hand-offs to separate teams, no black boxes, no loose ends.

Writing

Insights from Donovan Robertson.

Start the conversation

Have a problem where being wrong is expensive?

Let’s begin solving your data problem. Brief me on what’s the issue below.

Request my expertise